2012年12月07日

戦争なしの未来?その可能性は思いのほか大きく


A Future Without War? It’s More Likely than You Think
( TIME )

There’s war in Afghanistan, a crisis in the Gaza Strip and
percolating conflicts across sub-Saharan Africa. But for politicial
scientists, that’s actually the good news.

The fact is, global conflicts have been on a downward trend for the
last half-century. And now, a group of researchers in Norway says
their data indicates that the future could be even more peaceful.

In a paper soon to be published in International Studies Quarterly,
Havard Hegre, a professor of political science at the University of
Oslo, claims that the number of ongoing conflicts will be halved by
2050 -- with the greatest decrease coming in the Middle East.

Hegre, along with his colleagues at the Peace Research Institute
Oslo, put together a statistical model that took into account factors
such as infant mortality, education, youth population, ethnic make-up
and conflict history. They ran the conflict simulation program 18,000
times before drawing conclusions.

Given the carnage on your average evening news broadcast, the idea
that humans are resisting our violent impulses would appear to be a
fantasy. However, despite the apparent prevalence of war, it is in
fact in decline. In 1992 every fourth country was involved in an
armed conflict; by 2009 that number had fallen to every sixth country.

The question that remains unanswered is why. Hegre explains that
while it is difficult to emphasize one factor over another, education
is key. “India is on the list because it is so large and it has a
history of conflict in the North, but if they made an effort to
expand education, they will reduce their risk of armed conflict,”
says Hegre.

Another factor is economic development. Europe, despite its current
economic troubles, is nevertheless still at low risk for armed
conflict. This is because “developed economies tend to have invested
a lot in exchange between different networks,” explains Hegre,
“violence destroys those networks.” In other words, the more you
have to lose, the less appealing war is.


■ Uh-huh... なるへそ特記事項 ■


■ 1段落目

percolate:しみ通る、にじみ出る


■ 4段落目

mortality:死すべき運命(の人間)、死亡率


■ 5段落目

carnage:大虐殺

impulse:衝動、刺激

apparent:〜らしい、のようだ

前の文に出てくる「appear」の形容詞形で、名詞の前に置かれたときにはこの
意味になります。でも、次のような形で使われると、反対に近い意味になるの
で要注意です。

It is apparent that he will win the election.

(彼が選挙に勝つのは明らかだ。)

prevalenc:広く行き渡っていること、普及、流行


■ さらば日本語ふむふむ読み ■


A Future Without War? It’s More Likely than You Think
( TIME )


There’s war in Afghanistan,

a crisis in the Gaza Strip

and percolating conflicts across sub-Saharan Africa.

But for politicial scientists,

that’s actually the good news.


The fact is,

global conflicts have been on a downward trend

for the last half-century.

And now,

a group of researchers in Norway says

their data indicates

that the future could be even more peaceful.


In a paper soon to be published in International Studies Quarterly,

Havard Hegre,

a professor of political science at the University of Oslo,

claims

that the number of ongoing conflicts will be halved by 2050 --

with the greatest decrease coming in the Middle East.


Hegre,

along with his colleagues at the Peace Research Institute Oslo,

put together a statistical model

that took into account

factors

such as infant mortality, education, youth population, ethnic make-up
and conflict history.

They ran the conflict simulation program 18,000 times

before drawing conclusions.


Given the carnage on your average evening news broadcast,

the idea

that humans are resisting our violent impulses

would appear to be a fantasy.

However,

despite the apparent prevalence of war,

it is in fact in decline.

In 1992 every fourth country was involved in an armed conflict;

by 2009 that number had fallen to every sixth country.


The question that remains unanswered is why.

Hegre explains

that while it is difficult to emphasize one factor over another,

education is key.

“India is on the list

because it is so large and it has a history of conflict in the North,

but if they made an effort to expand education,

they will reduce their risk of armed conflict,”

says Hegre.


Another factor is economic development.

Europe,

despite its current economic troubles,

is nevertheless still at low risk for armed conflict.

This is

because “developed economies tend to have invested a lot

in exchange between different networks,”

explains Hegre,

“violence destroys those networks.”

In other words,

the more you have to lose,

the less appealing war is.


■ お帰り日本語ふむなる試訳 ■


戦争なしの未来?その可能性は思いのほか大きく
( TIME )

アフガニスタンには戦争が、ガザ地区には危機が、サハラ砂漠以南のアフリカ
には紛争の浸透がある。だが、政治学者にとって、それは実際にはよい知らせ
だ。

事実、国際紛争は過去半世紀、下降傾向にある。そして今、ノルウェーの一群
の研究者がデータを示してこう言う。将来はもっと平和になるかもしれない。

近々インターナショナル・スタディーズ・クォータリー誌に発表される論文で、
オスロ大学の政治学教授Havard Hegreは主張している。現行の紛争の数は2050
年までに半減する。最大の減少は中東から訪れる。

Hegreはオスロ国際平和研究所の同僚と共に統計モデルをまとめた。幼児死亡
率、教育、若年人口、民族構成、そして紛争史といった要素を考慮に入れ、紛
争シミュレーション・プログラムを1万8千回行なってから、結論を出した。

夜のニュース放送に当り前のように映し出される殺戮を踏まえれば、人類が暴
力的な衝動を抑えているという考えは絵空事のように思えよう。しかし、戦争
は流行しているように見えて、事実上減少している。1992年には、4カ国に1国
が武力紛争に関わっていたが、2009年にはその数は6カ国に1国まで落ちていた。

答えられないまま残っている疑問はその理由だ。Hegreの説明では、1つの要因
をもう1つの要因にもましてと強調するのは難しいが、鍵は教育だ。「インド
がリストに載っているのは、そこが非常に大きく、北部地方に紛争の歴史があ
るからだ。だが、教育を広める努力をすれば、必ず武力紛争の危険性は小さく
なる」と、Hegreは言う。

もう1つの要因は経済的発展だ。現在の経済的困難にもかかわらず、ヨーロッ
パは依然として武力紛争の危険性が少ない。それは「発展した経済は多くのも
のを様々なネットワークの交換に投じる傾向がある」からだと、Hegreは説明
する。「暴力はそうしたネットワークを破壊する」。換言すれば、失う羽目に
なるものが増えれば増えるほど、戦争の誘惑は小さくなる。


■ もう一度ふむなるTIMEしよう! ■


A Future Without War? It’s More Likely than You Think
( TIME )

There’s war in Afghanistan, a crisis in the Gaza Strip and
percolating conflicts across sub-Saharan Africa. But for politicial
scientists, that’s actually the good news.

The fact is, global conflicts have been on a downward trend for the
last half-century. And now, a group of researchers in Norway says
their data indicates that the future could be even more peaceful.

In a paper soon to be published in International Studies Quarterly,
Havard Hegre, a professor of political science at the University of
Oslo, claims that the number of ongoing conflicts will be halved by
2050 -- with the greatest decrease coming in the Middle East.

Hegre, along with his colleagues at the Peace Research Institute
Oslo, put together a statistical model that took into account factors
such as infant mortality, education, youth population, ethnic make-up
and conflict history. They ran the conflict simulation program 18,000
times before drawing conclusions.

Given the carnage on your average evening news broadcast, the idea
that humans are resisting our violent impulses would appear to be a
fantasy. However, despite the apparent prevalence of war, it is in
fact in decline. In 1992 every fourth country was involved in an
armed conflict; by 2009 that number had fallen to every sixth country.

The question that remains unanswered is why. Hegre explains that
while it is difficult to emphasize one factor over another, education
is key. “India is on the list because it is so large and it has a
history of conflict in the North, but if they made an effort to
expand education, they will reduce their risk of armed conflict,”
says Hegre.

Another factor is economic development. Europe, despite its current
economic troubles, is nevertheless still at low risk for armed
conflict. This is because “developed economies tend to have invested
a lot in exchange between different networks,” explains Hegre,
“violence destroys those networks.” In other words, the more you
have to lose, the less appealing war is.


■ もっとふむなるしたい人は、記事の続きも読んでみよう!
 ↓ ↓ ↓
http://ti.me/11EDMDw


■ 編集後記 ■


こんなツールがあるんですね。その名も「Anki」。高機能のデジタル単語帳が
簡単に作れます。アンドロイド用のアプリもあるって言うし、こいつを使って、
もう一度スペイン語に挑戦してみようかしら。

http://ankisrs.net/

こちらのページで知りました。英語学習を習慣化するコツを紹介しています。

http://togetter.com/li/411884


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